The UAE has moved into a wetter and more unsettled stretch of weather, even as autumn temperatures stay well above their seasonal norms. Forecasters link both to a strengthening El Niño that is expected to shape conditions well into next year.
A low-pressure system is changing the weather pattern, and local media have set out a five-day rain outlook for the country. The Ministry of Interior has urged the public to take care as conditions change. Residents are generally advised to follow official alerts, avoid flood-prone areas and drive carefully in heavy rain and reduced visibility.
Rain, hail and heat at the same time
The shift follows a volatile week. On Monday, parts of the UAE were hit by heavy rain, strong winds and hail, and the Northern Emirates saw a sustained spell of rain in recent days. Abu Dhabi and Dubai were expected to avoid the wet weather but face high humidity, while temperatures stayed in the high 30s across much of the country and topped 40°C in Al Ain.
That mix of storms and stubborn warmth is unusual for October, a month in which the UAE normally eases into milder weather. The country’s average daily temperature in October stands at 29.7°C, according to the NCM’s latest monthly summary.
The El Niño factor
Forecasters point to El Niño, the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, as a major influence. The phenomenon, forecast to be the strongest on record, is trapping a blanket of high pressure over the Arabian Peninsula and pushing temperatures well above seasonal averages, with the peak expected in October and November.
The National Centre of Meteorology has described a long-lasting event. It puts the probability of El Niño continuing from October 2026 through February 2027 at 99 per cent, with the temperature anomaly in the Pacific potentially reaching around 3°C at the peak. Its effects on the UAE could last until April 2027, with near to above-average temperatures and rainfall and the potential for significant weather activity, especially later in the forecast period.
For October, the NCM has put the probability of above-normal temperatures across most of the country at more than 80 per cent. Local reports also point to a seasonal outlook of above-average temperatures and rainfall from November 2026 to March 2027.
Rain is welcome, but flooding risk is not ruled out
In a desert country, rainfall is generally good news for groundwater, farms and reservoirs. The NCM has said strong El Niño conditions could bring beneficial rainfall to the UAE, but that heavy rain could still occur at times if the right weather conditions develop. Experts have likewise cautioned that severe bouts could raise the risk of flooding, although this is not guaranteed.
The UAE’s recent history explains the caution. Intense downpours can overwhelm drainage in cities built for dry conditions, and wadis and mountain roads in the north and east can become dangerous within minutes. Authorities regularly urge residents to stay away from valleys and flood channels and to follow instructions from police and the NCM.
The effect on the Gulf is more complicated than headlines suggest
Scientists also urge perspective. One expert quoted in recent coverage said El Niño’s impact on UAE and Gulf temperatures is relatively weak, and researchers at NYU Abu Dhabi found that La Niña, not El Niño, has historically been more favourable to exceptionally high summer sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf. In other words, the link between El Niño and local weather is indirect, and individual systems matter as much as the big climate pattern.
What residents should do now
- Check NCM forecasts and alerts daily, especially before travelling to the Northern Emirates or mountain areas.
- Slow down and increase following distances in rain, and avoid driving through flooded roads.
- Keep children and pets away from wadis, dams and swollen channels.
- Secure loose items on balconies and construction sites ahead of strong winds.
- Expect possible flight delays in poor visibility and check with airlines before heading to the airport.
With El Niño expected to remain in place for months, the current rainy spell looks more like the opening of a longer, wetter season than a one-off event. Residents who prepare now will be better placed to cope with whatever the winter brings.
