The Indian rupee dropped 12 paise to 83.56 in early trade after closing at 83.44 earlier in the day. Due to growing expectations that Donald Trump will win the US presidency and a subsequent increase in US Treasury yields, the rupee was predicted to weaken at the start of trade on Tuesday.
Asian currencies saw a decline of 0.1% to 0.5%, with the offshore Chinese yuan falling below 7.3050 against the US dollar. According to a currency trader at a bank, the rupee will “have it difficult” today, in line with Asia.
In the New York trading session on Monday, the US 10-year yield surged to almost 4.50 percent, the highest level in a month. Investors demand higher rates on US Treasury bonds due to the growing probability that Trump will win the election in November.
According to political betting website PredictIt, the likelihood that US President Joe Biden will win the presidency has increased to 60% following his widely criticised debate performance last week. In a note, Morgan Stanley stated that “market participants (are) pricing in fiscal concerns and higher inflation given potential election outcomes.
Morgan Stanley noted that, about the US and French elections, “elections are taking centre stage, with increased focus on outcomes and political uncertainty continuing to drive price action.”
US yields have increased despite Monday’s dismal manufacturing data in the US. According to Institute for Supply Management data, US manufacturing shrank in June for the third consecutive month.
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